Created: 2019-08-28 16:03 | Last change: 2019-08-29 12:09
The Dutch plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market grew 73% in July, with 2,372 plug-in registrations, which translated into a PEV share of 7%. For January through July, PEV share was at 8.6%, well above the 6% of 2018.
Things could have been better if plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) hadn’t dropped 21% year over year (YoY). Full electrics (BEVs) alone jumped 102%. If we only consider BEVs, the EV share last month was 6.2%, with the 2019 share being 7.4%.
In July, the Tesla Model 3 (590 units) had its best first-month-of-quarter so far, so prospects for beating the all-time BEV record from a single model (2,621 units last December), which is currently in the hands of the Jaguar I-PACE, look good. I can’t wait to see the September results…
But back to July. While the 2nd place finish of the Hyundai Kona EV is not surprising (insert battery constraint comment), the 3rd place finish of the VW e-Golf certainly is, and the German hatchback did it with 231 units, its best result since January. That is a meritable result for a model in sunset mode, which leaves great prospects for the upcoming ID.3. (If VW manages these level of sales with a veteran and overpriced model, imagine how high it can reach with a competitive EV…)
A bit surprisingly, the Nissan Leaf, despite the injection of the 62 kWh version, failed to reach the top 5, ending the month in sixth, just behind the niche (and ageless) BMW i3.
Checking the Japanese hatchback registrations in detail, most of them continue to be of the 40 kWh version, so either volume deliveries of the 62 kWh version are still to come, or the longer range version is not the success Nissan had hoped for.
Looking ahead, the future of the Nissan EV looks somewhat bleak. It is being squeezed from above (Tesla Model 3) and below (revised Renault Zoe, Peugeot e-208, Opel e-Corsa), and the arrival of the VW ID.3 should hit it full frontal. Only deep discounting could keep sales coming in. Now, whether Nissan wants to follow that path is a whole different subject.
Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Tesla Model 3 sits high above everyone else, with almost triple the sales of the #2 Hyundai Kona EV. In fact, the Tesla midsizer is now the 3rd best selling model — on the entire auto market.
While the overall leader, the VW Polo (7,974 units), seems hard to reach for now, the #2 Ford Focus (7,359) is not that far away, and considering Tesla’s sports sedan is expected to have a stronger second half of the year, the runner-up spot could still fall into the Model 3’s lap.
In terms of the model ranking, there wasn’t much to talk about in the top spots. In fact, we have to go down to #16 to see position changes, with the Volvo XC90 PHEV climbing one position. The Mini Countryman PHEV did the same, to #18.
Highlighting Tesla’s good moment, the Model S returned to the top 20, in #20, thanks to 21 deliveries last month. That was its best first-month-of-quarter this year, while its Model X sibling also had a positive month, with 18 deliveries, also a first-month-of-quarter year best, with the sports-minivan-CUV now only 24 units away from the top 20. If the recovering sales continue, we could see it back at the top 20 soon. Maybe in September?
With the Model S now in the top 20, we have 13 BEVs versus 7 PHEVs, and with the all-electric field said to increase in the coming months (Tesla Model X, Kia Soul EV, Mercedes EQC…), I think we are close to a non-returning point, in which plug-in hybrids will be residual in this top 20.
Oh, and because I love factoids, here’s another one that I picked up: The i-Pace is the best selling Jaguar on Dutch lands…
In the manufacturer ranking, Tesla (32%) is the clear leader, followed by Hyundai (15%), while the race for the last podium place is hot, with Kia (9%) running ahead of Volkswagen and Nissan (both with 8%).
Tesla Model 3 vs. the Gasoline/Diesel Competition
Comparing Model 3 deliveries against the model’s midsize premium competitors, there’s really no doubt about who is Top Dog. The Tesla nameplate had double the sales (registrations) of the #2 BMW 3 Series.
Will the revised BMW 330e, said to start selling soon, help the BMW model to shorten the distance between it and the Model 3?
Maybe … but I have my doubts.
For comparison sake, the PHEV version of the Volvo S/V60 twins represents less than 10% of sales (9%, to be precise). Even if the 330e reaches a 10% share of total 3 Series sales, the increase will barely be visible in what is a large gulf between the two models.
Regarding the Tesla Model S & X, a hot topic of recent months, their behavior is far less impressive, as both are below their category’s top 5. Although, the Model S is recovering ground, now in #6, only 31 units behind the #5 Porsche Panamera.
Interestingly, electrification gallops in different rhythms in the full-size vehicle segments than the overall market. In the car category, only one model in the top 5 has more than 20% of its sales coming from plug-ins (#5 Porsche Panamera, 73% of sales come from the PHEV versions).
In the SUV category, only one model (BMW X5, 0%) has less than 45% plug-in sales, with most of the Bimmer’s sales pretty visibly transferring to the PHEV version, once it becomes available. We even have a BEV in the SUV top 5: the Audi e-Tron is the 2nd best selling full-size SUV in the Netherlands!