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English translation: hungary npf.en.pdf
Original language: hungary npf.pdf
NPF highlights and 2019 NPF reporting on implementation highlights
On this page, we provide relevant information on the topic of alternative fuels vehicles, infrastructure or support measures as provided in the National Policy Framework (NPF) as well as the 2019 Reporting by the Member States on the NPF implementation.
According to Art. 10(1) of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive, each Member State shall submit to the European Commission a report on the implementation of its National Policy Framework on a tri-annual basis, and for the first time by or before 18 November 2019. Those Reports must contain a description of the measures taken in the reporting Member State in support of alternative fuels infrastructure build-up. An overview of the Reports notified by [Member State] and received by the Commission to date is provided here below (download section), including an English translation where applicable.
The highlights for all National Policy Framework follow more or less the same structure: we first explain the modelling approach where one has been provided, we then explain the objectives or key focus areas of the NPF and then provide an overview of the key messages for those alternative fuels with distinct infrastructure requirements for which Member States had to develop national targets according to the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive (electricity, hydrogen, LPG, CNG and LNG - therefore not covering for instance biofuels or synthetic fuels. The highlights are extracts from the NPF documents. These highlights should not be considered summaries of the NPFs. For a full and complete overview, we advise to read the NPF documents.
Highlights 2019 Reporting on the NPF implementation
Hungary’s NPF published in 2016 set ambitious targets on infrastructure development. Since then, many circumstances have changed. Not all technologies and their cost efficiency have developed as expected especially in case of fuel cells. Battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are penetrating the market rapidly, but other technologies are not. Neither fuel cell electric vehicles nor LNG vehicles have appeared in Hungary. The CNG-fuelled fleet showed moderate growth and LPG use was stagnating. Consumption of biofuels rose and remained the most significiant alternative fuel in road transportation due to the obligatory blending rate.
Hungary has published its National Energy and Climate Plan in January 2020 together with the new National Energy Strategy (NECP). For 2030 the NECP set a target of -40% compared to 1990 for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Also Hungary’s GHG reduction target under the Effort Sharing Regulation is -7% for 2030 compared to 2005 for sectors of the economy – including transport - that fall outside the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Furthermore Hungary intends to keep the final energy consumption on the 2005 level (785 PJ). Hungary’s target for renewable energy share in gross final energy consumption for 2030 is minimum 21%. The NECP also sets a 14% target for the share of renewables in the transport sector with multipliers taken into account as determined in Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. Electromobility and biofuels will be the two most important contributors to achieve the national energy and climate targets for transport. For electromobility, the framework sets an ambitious target by 2030. Hungary already supports the spread of electricity consumption in road transportation with a wide range of policies, but with additional measures the number of electric vehicles will rise above half a million by 2030. It seems that electricity will fuel the majority of passenger cars, trains and urban bus transport, the latter due to the Green Bus Program. Yet electrification will increase in other segments as well. The number of accompanying charging points will also rise significantly and will surpass 50 000 in 2030 in the “with additional measures” (WAM) scenario.
Natural gas vehicles may play a role in the transport sector, but their significance will remain small in relation to the role of the electric drive vehicles. The CNG vehicles fleet is expected to grow moderately in the future and to remain marginal. A small increase is expected in the number of CNG buses compared to 2018, but after 1 January 20222 their numbers are possibly going to shrink, because after this point, only electric buses used in urban transportation will be eligible for support in the Green Bus Program. LNG can play a role manly in long distance freight and to a lesser extent in passenger transport if supply problems are solved and the price of these vehicles decreases.
Financial support of LPG infrastructure is not foreseen, so LPG consumption will decline. In the WAM scenario LPG fleet (only passenger cars) is expected to decrease by half.
Hungary will continuously monitor the development of fuel cell technology. The future of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles strongly depends on economic factors. If this technology becomes economical, the Hungarian government will examine the possibilities to incentivise its spread.
Electricity: Electric vehicles have been identified as a key tool in achieving Hungary’s targets on GHG mitigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Battery electric vehicles on tank-to wheel basis provide the only zero-emission alternative to conventional engines that have already penetrated the market. Furthermore, electric engines come nearly without noise pollution and are much more efficient than those using fossil fuels and need less maintenance thus result in lower operational costs. An additional benefit is that Hungary is less reliant on electricity import than on fossil fuels import.
Yet electric vehicles are still low in numbers mainly due to their higher price and lower range. On the other hand as technology is developing rapidly and as the above mentioned attributes improve, the number of electric vehicles is also growing rapidly. In Hungary, between 2016 and 2018, the number of electric vehicles more than doubled every year. The number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are both increasing at a fast rate in numbers reaching 9240 in 2018, which is approximately 0.21% of the entire vehicle fleet of Hungary. 94% of these are passenger cars, but electric light commercial vehicles and buses also appeared. In 2018 the share of newly sold electric cars surpassed 1.5%.
In road transportation, as the price of batteries will continue to decrease and their capacities increase a massive growth in electric vehicles demand can be predicted for the forthcoming years. Already a wide range of policies and measures support the spread of electric vehicles, but additional ones are also being planned in accordance with Jedlik Ányos Plan to improve the process. In the WEM scenario, the number of electric vehicles in 2030 will reach 420 000 while in the WAM it will surpass half a million. The number of electric buses will grow rapidly as just in the framework of the Green Bus Program, 897 buses will be replaced with electric ones, which is 31% of the current fleet used in urban public transportation.
Both in the WEM and the WAM scenarios, the number of powered two wheelers will also increase by 60 times between 2018 and 2030, reaching approximately 30 000 vehicles.
In addition, we can also expect a significant growth in the number of light commercial electric vehicles due to the growing number of available models. In the WAM scenario, the number of light commercial electric vehicles is predicted to exceed 80 000 units by 2030, which is 20 000 more than the value predicted in the WEM scenario. So, in 2030, the share of this category will represent 14% and 15% of the overall electric vehicles fleet in the WAM and WEM scenarios respectively. Long-distance freight travel is the biggest challenge for the electrification of road transport, thus we expect the share of electric vehicles in this segment will be marginal for the major part of the decade. On the other hand, we expect fast increase in the fleet after 2025 reaching 9000 units in the WEM scenario, and 16 000 in the WAM scenario.
In inland navigation by 2030, the number of electric vessels can reach 450. Concerning the projections, there is no difference between the WEM scenario and the WAM scenario. Shore power or shore-supply is the provision of shore-side electrical power to a ship at berth while its main and auxiliary engines are shut down. In 2018 there were 28 shore-side electricity supply facilities in Hungary for inland waterway vessels.
Natural gas: The number of CNG vehicles is still low, but has been growing smoothly since 2016 reaching 3200 in 2018. It is present in all segments of transportation from passenger cars to heavy duty vehicles. In bus transportation CNG is currently the most significant alternative fuel in Hungary. The number of refueling points reached 13 in 2018. 8 of these were deployed in Budapest, and the rest in other cities. According to our expectations, in the WEM scenario the number of CNG vehicles will continuously increase to 39 576 by 2030 and slightly less (38763) in the WAM. Growth is expected mainly for cars. A small increase is expected in the number of CNG buses compared to 2018, but after 1 January 20228 their numbers are possibly going to shrink, because after this point, only electric buses used in urban transportation will be eligible for support in the Green Bus Program. In the future, LNG can play a role manly in long distance freight and to a lesser extent in passenger transport if the supply problems are solved and the price of these vehicles decreases. A planned LNG terminal in Croatia and the expansion of a functioning one in Poland can help to solve supply problems. In the WEM scenario we expect that the number of LNG heavy duty vehicles will reach 8153 and 6480 in the WAM scenario in 2030. LNG demand in the WEM scenario on the two TEN- t corridors in Hungary can be covered with approximately 40 refueling points and with 30 in the WAM.
LPG: Though its share is stagnating, LPG is still the most commonly used alternative fossil fuel in Hungary, as more than 28 000 vehicles use it. Nearly all of these are passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
Highlights NPF (date of adoption: December 2016)
Various scenarios have been prepared to forecast the penetration of vehicles powered by alternative fuels and of the associated infrastructure due to the current changing economic environment and rapid technological advances. The low-penetration scenario assumes that current economic growth projections do not materialise and no further incentives are introduced. However, Hungary would still meet the targets identified in the Directive even under the low-penetration scenario. The realistic penetration scenario assumes that the present legal and economic environment is sustained and the current subsidy schemes are continued. The high-penetration scenario assumes more rapid technological advances in alternative fuel vehicles and an expansion of the present incentive system.
The forecasts were based on the background study prepared by the Institute for Transport Sciences, the background studies for the PAN-LNG project, the Jedlik Ányos Plan and technical consultations with the Ministry of National Economy and other organisations participating in public consultation. The scenarios forecasts show that the highest penetration is foreseen for natural gas as alternative fuel (all vehicle types), followed by electric vehicles, mainly passenger cars but including hybrids. The Government adopted a decision on the National Action Plan for Bus Manufacturing in the second quarter of 2016, which treats the deployment of alternative fuel buses as a priority.
Electricity: In the realistic scenario, electric passenger cars (including hybrids) are foreseen to go from 21,000 to 181,900 in 2030. For 2020, 200 electric buses are foreseen. At the end of 2015, there were 13 recharging points in the ports within the TEN-T Core Network, 12 of which were in the Freeport of Csepel. The installation of 2x2 new recharging points is included in a project in preparation. At the end of 2015, there were 15 recharging points in the ports outside the TEN-T Core Network. Dunaújváros currently has 12 recharging points, which meet demand; no expansion is therefore planned. In Győr-Gönyű, the installation of an additional 4 recharging points is planned in addition to the 3 existing points. At the Liszt Ferenc International Airport are 57 stands, a ground power unit is only available at 9 stands close to Terminal 2. When the new jetty is constructed, some new stands with ground power units will be built nearby.
Hydrogen: targets for infrastructure and vehicles are provided in the NPF
CNG: For CNG, the realistic scenario foresees 21,000 passenger cars in 2020, 81,600 in 2025 and 284,000 in 2030. In 2016 there were 1,700 CNG passenger cars. LCV grow from 3,600 in 2020 to 30,000 in 2030. Heavy duty trucks from 1,650 in 2020 to 10,100 in 2030 and buses 750 to 2,700. Hungary is promoting the establishment of CNG refuelling infrastructure in Hungary along TEN-T corridors by installing 39 innovative Clean Fuel Boxes, and the establishment of domestic production and international marketing capacities for the technology.
LNG: The realistic scenario foresees 2,500 LNG HD trucks in 2020 going to 13,500 in 2030. Buses from 50 to 700. Establishment of LNG refuelling station for vessels in the Freeport of Csepel, development of an LNG ship- to-ship bunkering vessel. The refuelling station opens the way to LNG-based navigation (PAN-LNG 4 Danube project, 2017-2018). Five additional LNG bunkering sites are planned for 2025.